COFFEE FORECASTS AND FEELINGS IN 2022
Let’s switch on our crystal balls (or lava lamps if you don’t have one) and ask it what the future holds for the coffee industry this year. After we’ve done that, and seen that there’ll be a tall, dark and handsome batch brew sometime in the foreseeable future, let’s have a look at some of the trends that were brewing during 2021, and think about how they’ll affect the state of coffee in 2022!
EFFECTS OF COVID
It’s not all bad! Not to downplay the devastating impact Covid has had in many aspects of our lives, but it has made many reevaluate their values and how to incorporate them into their lives and business, and also seeking out innovative ways to keep businesses afloat during an economic downturn.
In 2021, social distancing, many working from home, cafe’s closed for dine-ins, meant that many strong cafe’s, particularly in the city, had to close for an extended period of time or shut down completely. In 2022 we look forward to the return of a vibrant city coffee scene with more workers returning to the office.
For the suburban cafes, we’re hoping for a continuing growth of the cafe being a hub of community life (read more about my love of coffee culture and the third space here. Not as boring as it sounds I promise!). Peter Giuliano, the Chief Research Officer at the Specialty Coffee Association says there is ”the desire for the coffee shop to be a community space, linked closely to a neighbourhood and its residents.”
In turn, Peter says that cafe owners have felt a sense of being a pillar of the community, and responded by being more attentive and flexible to customer’s wishes. Menus have been extended, delivery services employed, retail shelves have been further stocked with beans and equipment as more people are making coffee from home.
Subscription services rose in popularity last year, and we expect that they’ll continue to rise. What started as a convenient way to make delicious coffee that ticked all the lockdown and social distancing boxes, has just become a really enjoyable way to consume coffee as part of a daily routine. Or another opportunity to geek out on coffee.* I just made an aeropress while boiling an egg for breakfast. So good. As I always say, you need to put on pants to go to a cafe. Not so with an aeropress.
ORIGIN
Coffee producing nations have had a rough 2021 with droughts, pests, logistical issues due to covid and poor infrastructure, with environmental shifts and social economic factors thrown in for good measure.
When crops have been damaged or decimated, its effects are felt many years into the future, as the seedlings being grown to supply upcoming seasons may be ruined, or take years to turn into fruitful crops.
There is a concerning paradox arising from the growth of the coffee industry, and climate change and deforestation. There is predicted to be a growing demand for coffee in the future, but due changes in the environment, the land useful for growing crops is decreasing. Daily Coffee News says that Countries like Brazil, India and Uganda are predicted to lose 60% of their suitable coffee growing areas by 2050, and the least affected like Colombia and Ethiopia are still predicted to lose around 30%.
Now to accommodate the increasing demand of coffee, new crop land is created – mostly at the expense of the natural environment. Converting forests into coffee plantations threatens the delicate habitats and high biodiversity value, irreversibly damaging the ecosystem with unknown consequences. Possibly furthering the degradation of land suitable for coffee farming, which would instigate further clearing of land, further jeopardising the ecosystem.
There are many social and economical factors set to affect the future of coffee at origin also. Farmers and workers face food insecurity, gender inequality harassment, and workers leaving to find education and employment to urban areas.
Some major companies are setting up roasting facilities at origin. Keeping the roasting in the country of origin could create jobs in the local economy. In major coffee producing nations such as Brazil and Kenya, unemployment is high, and providing jobs and training would contribute to the local economy, and provide people with valuable skills such as roasting or cupping. Thinking optimistically, the resources brought in could assist in combating social issues surrounding the industry, and support gender equality and safety from sexual and power abuses in the workplace, higher incomes provide education, access to technologies and implementing sustainable practices.
Thinking pessimistically, Barista Hustle questions the motives of the western companies creating roasteries at origin, asking ‘whether they are simply taking advantage of that cheaper labour’ and the increased profit margin is trickling back to the workers and farmers.
It does seem bleak, and we have no ready made solutions for these problems – but we do support the support of the coffee industry! We love the work of International Women’s Coffee Association (IWCA), and are encouraged by the rise of technologies like Farmer Connect making transparency in the supply chain more available and straightforward, giving more probability for fairer pricing from farm to cup.
RTD and ARTD
Easy and delicious. We’ll continue to see more of Ready To Drink offerings across retail spaces. We’ve got some and we love them! The people love them! We also spash our over ice with some Amaro sometimes because it’s still the festive season. Almost Ready To Drink (I made it up) offerings like specialty instant sachets will gain a bit of traction too. So good for camping.
Also Potato Milk will be a thing.
In conclusion, if my lava lamp is correct, 2022 will have some ups and downs like every other year, but it’s good to do 2022 together, and enjoy some coffee together!
FOOTNOTES AND REFERENCES
*Geek out here: recipes, water, and more water. Actually, just head here, there’s heaps of stuff to nerd up on.
https://mtpak.coffee/2022-top-coffee-trends/
https://dailycoffeenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Coffee-Barometer-2018-1.pdf
https://www.ibisworld.com/united-kingdom/market-size/coffee-processing/
https://www.baristahustle.com/blog/roasting-at-origin/
https://www.specialityfoodmagazine.com/food-and-drink/the-future-of-cafe-culture
https://coffeebarometer.org/
Image by Mukul Wadhwah
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